Technology

Spiralling memory spot prices could trigger 'industry cycle collapse,' report warns — NAND wafer costs surge 25% in a single month

Source

Tom's Hardware

Published

Mar 5, 2026

TL;DR

AI Generated

Rising memory spot prices, particularly in NAND flash wafer costs, are causing concern about a potential industry cycle collapse due to the widening gap between supply and demand. In February 2026, prices for DDR5 and 1Tb TLC flash wafers surged significantly, despite a brief slowdown during the Lunar New Year. Contract price forecasts for DRAM and NAND flash have been revised upward, with significant increases expected in the first quarter of 2026. The memory shortage is largely driven by AI infrastructure demands, leading to supply constraints in conventional DRAM and consumer NAND segments.

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YMTC's third Wuhan fab clears Beijing's 50% local tooling threshold as two more are planned — move positions company toward 3D NAND production to capitalize on wafer bonding strengths

YMTC's Phase 3 Wuhan fab is set to open later this year, meeting Beijing's requirement for new Chinese fabs to source at least 50% of their equipment domestically. The company plans to add two more fabs of similar scale in the future. The move towards 3D NAND production leverages China's strengths in wafer bonding technologies. Despite reliance on imported lithography tools, YMTC aims to achieve 50% domestic tooling by substituting in other areas like etch, deposition, and cleaning. Additionally, part of the new fabs' capacity will be allocated to DRAM production, with YMTC making strides in developing its own DRAM technology.

Tom's Hardware•

2 weeks ago

China's premiere memory-maker YMTC plans two additional Wuhan fabs using homegrown chipmaking tools — Phase 3 crosses 50% domestic tooling threshold

China's Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is expanding its memory production with plans for two new fabs in Wuhan, in addition to the Phase 3 plant set to be completed this year. Each new plant will have the capacity to produce 100,000 wafers per month, doubling YMTC's current output. With over 50% of Phase 3's equipment sourced domestically, YMTC is testing the viability of Chinese chipmaking tools for high-volume 3D NAND production. The company aims to increase DRAM and NAND production, with a focus on developing through-silicon via packaging for high-bandwidth memory. Despite challenges, YMTC holds a significant share of the global NAND market and is projected to grow further by 2028.

Tom's Hardware•

2 weeks ago

DRAM prices predicted to jump 63% in Q2, NAND up to 75% — follows 95% jumps in Q1, Trendforce says AI server demand keeps supply tight

DRAM prices are expected to increase by 58% to 63% in Q2, while NAND Flash prices are predicted to jump by 70% to 75%, following significant hikes in Q1. The surge in prices is attributed to DRAM suppliers focusing on AI-related applications and NAND production being directed towards enterprise SSDs. The demand for AI servers is keeping the supply tight, with cloud providers securing most of the available supply through long-term agreements. Despite a slowdown in PC DRAM demand, prices remain high due to limited supply from suppliers and module makers.

Tom's Hardware•

4 weeks ago

Kioxia discontinues 2D NAND products, last shipments to be made in 2028 — 1980s planar NAND memory reaches end of life

Kioxia is discontinuing production of its 2D NAND and 3rd Generation BiCS 3D NAND memory, with last shipments scheduled for 2028. This move marks the end of planar NAND memory, a technology that has been in production since the 1980s. The phase-out includes various legacy NAND products built on different nodes and cell types, covering a wide range of delivery formats. As Kioxia shifts focus to more advanced 3D NAND nodes, the decision to discontinue 2D NAND aligns with the changing demands in the industry, particularly from the AI sector.

Tom's Hardware•

4 weeks ago

Spiralling memory spot prices could trigger 'industry cycle collapse,' report warns — NAND wafer costs surge 25% in a single month

TL;DR

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YMTC's third Wuhan fab clears Beijing's 50% local tooling threshold as two more are planned — move positions company toward 3D NAND production to capitalize on wafer bonding strengths

China's premiere memory-maker YMTC plans two additional Wuhan fabs using homegrown chipmaking tools — Phase 3 crosses 50% domestic tooling threshold

DRAM prices predicted to jump 63% in Q2, NAND up to 75% — follows 95% jumps in Q1, Trendforce says AI server demand keeps supply tight

Kioxia discontinues 2D NAND products, last shipments to be made in 2028 — 1980s planar NAND memory reaches end of life

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