Analyzing Washington's new AI accelerator export rules — smaller manufacturers suffer while Nvidia and AMD will reap the rewards

The U.S. Department of Commerce has introduced new export rules for AI and HPC processors to China and Macau, allowing limited exports of specific products like AMD's Instinct MI325X and Nvidia's H200 GPUs under strict licensing. The regulations aim to enable exports of processors with specific performance thresholds to China and Macau, while maintaining restrictions on re-exports and certain countries. The rules require compliance with performance limits, U.S. supply availability, and third-party testing, impacting smaller manufacturers more than larger companies like AMD and Nvidia. The policy aims to balance national security concerns with export opportunities, requiring companies to prioritize U.S. sales over exports to China.